The GIV elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, Investment Platforms and the Amundi Investment Institute.
Space dreams versus Earth reality
Over the last month, central banks have taken an increasingly hawkish turn that has forced markets to start reassessing the AI trade’s remarkable momentum. As inflation continues to rise, policymakers have remained cautious despite positive headlines around a US/Iran ceasefire deal.
Balancing inflation and growth risks
Under a “fragile de-escalation" scenario, inflation is likely to remain above central banks’ targets for longer, with rising risks of second-round effects, particularly in Europe, where the growth outlook remains fragile. In the EU, in particular, we think markets are currently underestimating growth risks and, consequently, we do not expect a full-fledged hiking cycle by the central banks (ECB, BOE), which makes the short end of the curves attractive.
An industrial play for Europe
Markets have remained supported by earnings growth, helping to offset concerns over rising US yields. Looking ahead, monetary policy actions and policy stance will be key factors to monitor. Strategically, we continue to see high valuation and concentration risks in the US. Hence, we favour Europe, Japan and EM. Europe, in particular, is shifting from a consumption-led model toward one focused on resilience, reinforcing the region as a long-duration investment theme.
Mildly pro-risk, with an emphasis on selectivity
May was positive for risk assets, but the macro backdrop weakened slightly. Growth is becoming more uneven while inflation is showing more clearly in the data across the US, the Euro Area and the UK, leaving central banks less comfortable. Against this backdrop, the tone remains mildly pro-risk, with greater selectivity.
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